Across the country, we are witnessing rapid changes in responding to the novel coronavirus outbreak.

The coronavirus response is already having a substantial impact on small businesses as schools are closed, events are canceled, and people stay home. Soon, if not already, businesses small and large will feel economic pressure.

As people stay home and spend less, it will result in the most significant uptick in unemployment since the Great Recession. Just yesterday, J.P. Morgan issued its analysis of the Coronavirus impact, forecasting not only negative growth in the next fiscal quarter, but negative growth in this quarter. That’s remarkable, because there are only two weeks left before the end of Q1, and growth has been substantially positive so far through the first eleven weeks! In fact, Goldman Sachs reports no impact to their aggregate economic activity tracker for the US for the first week in March, with only modest declines in the US Consumer Activity Tracker. Similarly, initial claims for Unemployment Insurance remained low today. For the US economy to reach -2.0% growth in Q1, we will experience rapid impact in the weeks ahead. I am not the kind of economist who can offer an opinion or forecast of the degree of the economic impact, but we know some of the impact is already locked in, as sporting events are canceled and the related tourism is lost; schools are closed and workers adjust; and trade and travel are severely curtailed.

America’s Job Centers need to be ready. Hopefully you already have a rapid response emergency preparedness plan in place. If not, now is the time to bring your team together and plan to assist the thousands of workers and employers who will be disrupted in the coming months. Start thinking about how you can take advantage of your rapid response funds to set up specific programs that help people access training and programs to assist them through the coming economic downturn.

If you need help, Illinois put together a great presentation on how to use rapid response funds called “You can do that with rapid response?”

Rapid response layoff aversion is a very robust category that specifically helps states prepare for the economic impact of the novel coronavirus response. 20 CFR 682.320 defines rapid response as  “strategies and activities…to prevent or minimize the duration of unemployment resulting from layoffs.” It covers pre-planning activities in advance of economic disruption, coordination of agencies and organizations in response to economic disruption, and assisting employers in reopening.

Now is the time to gather your team and ask what you are going to do to mitigate the economic impact of the novel corona virus.